Report: Swedish Music Seminar 10/26/06
Okay, so it's been about a week since the Swedish Music Seminar and it's given me a lot to think about, both concerning Swedish music and the music business in general. The various panels covered a wide variety of subjects throughout the day, but there were quite a few topics that came up repeatedly. This isn't so much a review in the traditional sense, it's more of a 'thinking-out-loud' reflection on the day. Hopefully it won't seem too obtuse or out of place.
The first session on Swedish pop held little relevance for me (not to mention that Diana DeGarmo, "American Idol" also-ran/now-Broadway star, was a no-show), but the discussion was still interesting. There will always be at least some money to be made in this world, but the numbers appear to be dwindling. As to whether it's a result of the mythical "long tail" or what, the answer remains to be seen. One thing to note however is that the Max Martins of tomorrow are out there, getting their careers started online. No doubt there's some Swedish teen who grew up on hip-hop (as opposed to discovering it in their youth) making tracks in his bedroom right now. Check out discobelle.net for proof. What's more, these kids don't need the old industry and I think that makes some old industry folks scared. Personally, it's not my scene, so I'm content just watching from the sidelines.
The second panel of the day was one of the biggies: live music and touring. Everyone unanimously agreed that this is where careers are made and sustained. Live music has always been the best way to break bands, but it's more important than ever with the advent of declining CD sales. There is still plenty money to be made in merch sales and I highly doubt the ubiquitous band t-shirt is going to become obsolete anytime soon. Trouble is, as I have been reading, this new increased reliance on touring has started to backfire. Too many bands on the road needing more money means higher guarantees means higher ticket prices means the less shows that people can afford to attend. Some promoters I know were recently bemoaning about this being not only one of the busiest touring seasons in recent memory in terms of number of shows, but also one of the weakest in terms of actual ticket sales. A lot of low-to-mid level bands are gonna start feeling the hurt if they aren't already, Swedish bands even moreso. Think of all the additional fees incurred by international touring acts such as plane tickets, visas, equipment/van rental, etc. The end result is diminishing returns.
It's not necessarily their fault, but Internet tastemakers such as Pitchfork, Stereogum et al. are blowing up bands instantly, long before they've really had a proper chance to develop their craft and the backlash is in full effect. Call me old-fashioned, but I believe in a simple consideration known as 'paying your dues'. That doesn't mean that you automatically deserve success after suffering for years playing dank basements and sleeping on floors, but I think that sort of learning experience is very important. I know it was for me and my own (somewhat misguided) musical aspirations. It's the sort of arduous task that separates the wannabees from the real deal. So, I think we're going to go through a bit of a correction period where the current flavor-of-the-month act might not be so readily embraced or showered with money. I don't think the potential for online notoriety will necessarily change much, but the financial rewards certainly will. The market is simply unable to support the system as-is, so something's got to change.
Another possibility is more consolidation. I'm not just talking labels either, I'm talking management, bookers, everyone. With less money to go around, the more bands will need to be cautious about whose hand they let into their cookie jar. A lot of this ties into the next panel of the day, "The Swedish indie label scene."
A second unanimous declaration: major labels are bad and are on the way out. Indies are the way to go, if you even think you need a label at all. It's entirely possible today for a band to make themselves heard and get the ball rolling with very little outside help. People have been doing it in the punk/DIY/hardcore world for ages, but the Internet levels the playing field even further. Any scene, any genre, any location even - doesn't matter. If you have a computer, you can get your music out there. So why sign to label at all? Well, besides maybe offering some financial assistance, established labels have clout. A respected label also has brand recognition, something discussed heavily in the following session on "The Swedish image in North America." I used to buy records by virtue of the label's track record and perceived trustworthiness. Still do, in fact. That's something a startup band can never achieve on their own. Another option is the coop or collective, wherein all the various members help eachother out and thus raise the group higher.
Indies, despite being smaller and quicker to adjust to changing times, are also subject to the same consolidation effects mentioned above. A lot of the best, most forward-thinking labels are doing more and more in-house: management, booking, promotion, distro, even recording. Not only can they keep costs down by working their own acts, they can also generate additional income by doing outsource work for other people. This is not news, this has been going on for years. The difference is, it's becoming more and more vital with every passing day. Even something as simple as a monthly club night can play a substantial part in a label's bottomline.
We also have to remember that it isn't all just about the bands or labels - it's also about the record stores and venues. They need successful artists to keep them afloat and vice-versa. It's certainly possible that record stores will become more or less extinct in the not-so-distant future, but shuttered venues will be tougher to swallow. However, I'd argue that any downturn here would simply be another correction and not anything to sweat about long-term. We have been going through an adjustment period and I bet it'll get a whole lot uglier before it gets any better.
The recent closing of Tower Records was a crushing blow to the industry and a harbringer of what's to come. Majors continue to be terrified of the changing entertainment landscape and are taking less and less chances. For Swedish/Scandinavian bands, the idea that signing with a major will guarantee a long and prosperous international career are becoming increasingly small. An example brought up at the seminar: The Crash, a very successful Finnish act, opted not to resign with WEA when it became apparent that they would never promote the band internationally. It's one thing to license to a major for a specific territory and that territory only, but to lock yourself into a worldwide deal (as pretty much all major label deals are) from the get-go is bad news. We live in an increasingly international world - why set limits when you've barely just begun? There is certainly a temptation to ignore territory borders, but I think it still makes sense to maintain separation, especially when it comes to marketing. Small sites like my own function well enough to reach what marketing types like to call "early adopters," the coveted tastemaker audience, but it doesn't have the ability to also get the attention of the unwashed masses. Media saturation is a complicated game.
Another marketing and branding topic of note that was discussed concerned the increased number of partnerships between music and non-music companies. People are a little less prone to instantly cry "sell out!" at any sponsorship deal, so the door is opened for further cooperation and other corportations desperately desire the "cool"-factor that music can provide. This is especially important in the case of exporting Swedish music because the costs are so high, as mentioned above. There's also the notion of an overriding "Swedish brand" image which many hope can be seen as a mark of quality. Obviously, that plays into a lot of what I do here - declaring that Swedish/Scandinavian music is somehow worth more of your attention (and possibly your money) than that of some other scene. It's not exactly the sort of thing that's easily justified or even quantifiable, but it's certainly an integral part of what I do here. It goes along with Anders from Export Music uses as his title: "Music Evangelist." Anyhow, the thought is that we'll be seeing an increase in cooperation between music companies and other Swedish brands - the money has to come from somewhere, y'know?
It's also important to note the big business co-option of YouTube and Myspace. Both will continue to be useful media tools, but their aura of cool is ruined forever. Nobody believes that some no-name band with 10k myspace 'friends' is sure to sell 10k records and anyone that ever thought so is an idiot. Pageviews and plays are nice, but they do not translate into money in the bank. We'll probably continue to see acts gaining media attention with clever homemade videos, but the novelty has been lost. Again: expect diminishing returns. Alas, have no fear as I'm sure something new will take their place - nobody knows what yet, but some new fad will arrive. Regardless, it's a bad idea to get too caught up in any one way of doing things. The Internet moves too fast.
Personally, I'm not planning on changing much of what I do label-wise. Physical objects continue to hold value for me, as well as sound quality. I like mp3s a lot, but they lack charm. See the guys from Hybris and their thoughts on the matter for more. We know it's a fool's errand and for some reason that doesn't seem to stop us. Also, I make sure to keep my expectations modest and so I'm rarely disappointed. Once upon a time, sales of 2-3k CDs were considered a success for a small indie label. It's certainly still true for me. In the end, it's far more important for me to help good music get heard than it is about getting paid. I see my job as supporting the artist, not the other way around.
On a completely different note, the last session of the seminar I attended (I ditched out on the STIM session for dinner, sorry!) was on Sirius satellite radio and, more specifically, their specialty program Nordic Rox. It's fairly obvious to anyone who follows the stock market or reads the Lefsetz Letter that Sirius is in trouble and after this session, I'm convinced. First, as many people have pointed out, the operation is run by old terrestrial radio people - people who don't understand technology at all. How could they not have offered Internet subscriptions up until last week? And how can someone like Rich Mc Laughlin be so excited to champion a band like Ella Rouge? That's exactly the kind of overwrought pop garbage that people want to escape from at satellite radio (unless of course they want to program a station of nothing but for those sorts). It's music for people who don't actually care about music. I asked our panelists about the possibility of repurposing their unique content (in-studio performances, etc.) for on-demand listening and they were terrified of the concept. They cited fear of lawyers, but I don't see how trying to capitalize on something they've acquired for free would ever be a bad idea. As for program archives, again - they didn't want to consider it. Sirius offers a TiVo-esque recording device (a one-time fee, mind you) and they think that's good enough. Maybe I'm oversimplifying, but wouldn't that be another way to earn dollars? Through ala carte downloads? On top of or in addition to regular subscription income? I appreciate what they're trying to do with Nordic Rox (and they assure me the content is 100% programmed by the hosts themselves), but I feel like they could be so much more and, subsequently, are totally blowing it. Yes, the playlists are getting better. But that won't keep them in business.
Overall, I'm very happy to have attended the seminar. As you can see, it gave me quite a bit to chew on, hopefully for the other attendees as well. Once again, thanks kindly to Anders Hjelmtorp of Export Music for inviting me and perhaps I'll see everyone there again next year.